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Will the Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Hold?

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JL;DR SUMMARY With a delicate ceasefire announced between Israel and Hezbollah, military analyst Amos Harel discusses its implications, warning that while it presents a chance for regional stability, tensions and political complexities remain. A way out west there was a fella, fella I want to tell you about, fella by the name of Jeff Lebowski.

  • At least, that was the handle his lovin' parents gave him, but he never had much use for it himself.
  • This Lebowski, he called himself the Dude.
  • Now, Dude, that's a name no one would self-apply where I come from.
  • But then, there was a lot about the Dude that didn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
  • And a lot about where he lived, likewise. But then again, maybe that's why I found the place s'durned innarestin'.
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Tags

HezbollahIranNetanyahuCeasefireMilitary StrategyU.S.SecurityNorthern IsraelRegional Stability

Places mentioned

Israel
"After more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, which has displaced thousands on both sides of the border, President Biden announced that a Lebanon-Israeli ceasefire was approved by the Israeli Cabinet."
Lebanon
"After more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, which has displaced thousands on both sides of the border, President Biden announced that a Lebanon-Israeli ceasefire was approved by the Israeli Cabinet."
Beirut, Lebanon
"It's a combination of two things that you've mentioned. One is that Hezbollah has suffered a significant blow and that it needs time and energy to begin to recover. And look, most of Hezbollah's most talented terrorists, commanders, political leaders are out of the way. It's not only Nasrallah. It's Haj Mokhsan Fuad Shuka, who was their chief of staff of the military wing. It's Ali Karki and Ibrahim Akil, longtime leaders in their early 60s, people who fought Israel for close to 40 years. All of these people were taken out. So it will take time. There will need to be much more involvement by the IRGC, by the Iranians, in order to help Hezbollah begin to recover from this situation. And then there's the larger picture, which has to do with what you mentioned briefly, which is Iran's role in the region and Iran's policies. Hezbollah is just part of this picture. It's a very important proxy course, but it's not where Iranian calculations begin and end. There's more to it. There's more to this than only Hezbollah. Of course, there's the question of the relationship with the United States and especially the arrival of Donald Trump. One thing we know about the Iranians and Trump is that the Iranians fear Trump, that they see him as somebody who's very, very hard to understand. And it's very, very hard for them, like many other forces in the world, to estimate in advance where Trump is heading. He's a mystery wrapped in an enigma. So for them, the main priority right now is to reach some kind of an agreement with the new administration, perhaps allow the administration, the new administration, convince them to lift some of the sanctions, which are very damaging to the Iranian economy, in return for slowi..."
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Retrieved 2024-12-02 05:30:46 UTC
Curated 2024-12-02 06:03:08 UTC