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As Iranian power recedes, Turkey and its Sunni allies are filling the vacuum

JL;DR SUMMARY The Middle East landscape is shifting as Iran's influence wanes, largely due to strategic setbacks inflicted by Israel, resulting in a power vacuum increasingly being filled by Turkey and its Sunni allies. A way out west there was a fella, fella I want to tell you about, fella by the name of Jeff Lebowski. At least, that was the handle his lovin' parents gave him, but he never had much use for it himself. This Lebowski, he called himself the Dude. Now, Dude, that's a name no one would self-apply where I come from. But then, there was a lot about the Dude that didn't make a whole lot of sense to me. And a lot about where he lived, likewise. But then again, maybe that's why I found the place s'durned innarestin'.

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Tags

Middle EastIranTurkeyUs Foreign PolicyProxy WarfareGeopolitical TensionsSunni IslamismRegional Power ShiftIsrael's Strategic Priorities

Places mentioned

Iran
"With the commencement of open confrontation between Israel and Iran in April, this possibility appeared closer than ever."
Turkey
"It is also important to bear in mind that the main effect of diminishing Iranian power in the region over the last year, in addition to a renewed respect for and awareness of Israeli capacities and power, is the advance of Turkey."
Israel
"In the year ahead, Turkey will seek to consolidate its control of Syria by entrenching HTS and Sunni Islamist control and crushing alternative centres of power in the country."
Lebanon
"From June onwards, Israel scored a series of strategic successes against the Iran-led regional bloc, leaving it bruised and diminished. The killings of Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and October 7 architect Yahya Sinwar, the decimation of Lebanese Hezbollahs senior and mid-level leadership, and the October 26 retaliation raid that destroyed Iranian air defences exposed Tehrans proxy alliance as lacking any coherent response to Israels conventional superiority."
Damascus, Syria
"The history-making advance by the Syrian rebels on Damascus in late November was made possible only by this prior weakening of Iran and its proxies."
Iraq
"They have the upper hand in Iraq, where the Shia militias are a powerful force within the government of Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani."
Yemen
"The Iran-aligned Houthis still control the Yemeni capital and the greater part of its coastline."
United States
"With the inauguration of a new US president Israel is likely to seek support for an invigorated campaign against Iran, with the ultimate objective now being the bringing down of the Iranian regime."
Saudi Arabia
"It introduces a third focus of power, in addition to the Iran-led bloc, and the loose alliance of US-aligned states centred on Israel, the UAE and Saudi Arabia."
United Arab Emirates
"It introduces a third focus of power, in addition to the Iran-led bloc, and the loose alliance of US-aligned states centred on Israel, the UAE and Saudi Arabia."

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Retrieved 2025-01-09 05:31:07 UTC
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